Opportunities for farming from climate change?

The world is experiencing the disadvantages of climate change, in terms of increases in world food prices, partly because of extreme weather events in countries as far apart as Australia and Russia.

Britain's farmers will also feel the impact of our changing climate very directly, including prolonged and more frequent droughts, changes in rainfall distribution, more storms and other extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. These threats are likely to result in increased and changing pest loads, reduced yields of cereals, increased risk of heat stress in livestock and possible changes in soil water balance.

The position is further complicated because local effects of global warming are difficult to estimate. Although the UK has been getting warmer, we had record floods in the summer of 2007, then two cold winters in 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. And increases of temperature are not certain, since a decline in the Gulf Stream over the next decades is a real possibility.

This brings uncertainty and makes planning difficult, particularly for an industry which has to take a long-term view and which is so much at the mercy of the weather. But it is clear that within the next decade, climate change is likely to have had a significant effect on British agriculture.

That said, research suggests that climate change is unlikely to threaten the viability of farming. Indeed, while some more southerly countries will see their crop production fall as plants die in the hotter climates, according to a Met Office report, climate change will actually be good for British farming. There are likely to be opportunities for new crops and enterprises as the temperatures increase and growing seasons lengthen.

An average rise in temperature will extend the early and late parts of the growing season. Assuming there is sufficient water, this could potentially increase yields for certain crops, and allow longer grazing periods for livestock. A rise in average temperature will accelerate plant growth, speeding up the time between germination and ripening, and new crop varieties could become viable - from grapes, navy beans, and sweet corn to soya and sunflowers. Winters will decrease in severity with fewer frosts. Reduced frost damage should also increase productivity.

Overall the Met Office estimates that crop production in the UK will increase by 96 per cent, citing studies that predicted an increased production in wheat, soybean and sunflowers as temperatures rise.

And as the productivity of our farms changes, so too will the opportunities to supply new markets. For example, longer growing seasons will facilitate longer supply and therefore a greater availability of home-grown produce. Lambing and calving patterns could be altered to match grass growth patterns, enabling longer market supply.

But changes to the global systems will not change farming business systems automatically. Farmers will have to reassess the timing of their use of resources. They will have to be increasingly alive to the need for the risk management of droughts, floods and extreme weather events as they become more important, and it will become increasingly important to plan water management and irrigation.

Last month world leaders agreed a deal to push for a new climate treaty. While Chris Huhne, hailed the deal, as a "significant step forward" that would deliver a global, overarching legal agreement to cut emissions, environmental groups said that negotiators had failed to show the ambition necessary to cut emissions by levels that would limit global temperature rises to no more than two degrees centigrade, necessary to avoid "dangerous" climate change.

It is undeniable that climate change will bring about many serious threats, including disease, pollution and increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which will inevitably have negative implications for agriculture and these factors cannot be overlooked.

But it is also clear that there are new opportunities for commercially astute farming businesses in a changing world. If they are to succeed, farmers will need to anticipate and seize the commercial opportunities and adapt their businesses accordingly.

For more information please contact phillip.wolfgang@michelmores.com or telephone 01392 688688.